Historical rates

Historical Euribor Trends

Understanding Rate Cycles

Euribor rates have historically moved in distinct cycles driven by the European Central Bank's monetary policy and broader economic conditions. During periods of economic expansion and rising inflation, central banks typically raise rates to cool demand, and Euribor follows. During recessions or deflationary concerns, rates are cut to stimulate lending and spending. These cycles can last several years, and understanding where we are in the cycle helps borrowers and savers make informed decisions.

The 2022–2023 ECB Rate Hikes

A sharp rise in inflation across the euro area prompted the ECB to raise its key policy rates aggressively from July 2022 onwards. Euribor, which had been negative or near zero for many tenors since 2016, climbed rapidly. By late 2023, 6 month Euribor had reached levels above 4%, the highest in over a decade. This had a significant impact on households with variable-rate mortgages, as monthly payments rose substantially. The tightening cycle reflected the ECB's determination to bring inflation back toward its 2% target after years of ultra-loose monetary policy.

The Normalization Period

As inflation began to ease in 2024, the ECB started to cut rates, and Euribor began to decline. This normalization period marks a shift from crisis-era emergency policy back toward more conventional levels. Rates remain well above the near-zero or negative levels of the 2010s, but the trajectory has turned downward. Borrowers who locked in at the peak may see relief at their next reset, while savers may find deposit rates less attractive than during the hiking phase.

Volatility Patterns

Euribor can experience short-term volatility around ECB meetings, major economic data releases, and geopolitical events. Markets price in expectations of future policy, so Euribor often moves ahead of actual rate decisions. Periods of financial stress—such as the 2008 crisis or the 2011–2012 sovereign debt concerns—have led to spikes in interbank rates as banks became more cautious about lending. Conversely, periods of abundant liquidity have pushed rates lower. Explore our Euribor charts for visual trends and the Euribor forecast for outlook.